Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) significantly affect life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and healthcare costs across Japan. Each prefecture is actively implementing measures aligned with the national strategy to combat these health challenges. Notably, while the crude mortality rate for heart disease is on the rise due to an aging population, the age-adjusted rate is stable or declining. The percentage of acute myocardial infarction cases has fallen, but heart failure cases are on the rise. Stroke mortality rates, both crude and age-adjusted, are declining. However, concerns are growing regarding the increased rates of specific stroke types, such as cerebral embolism and thrombotic cerebral infarction.

Researchers from the National Cardiovascular Research Center of Japan and the University of Liverpool have furthered this understanding by projecting a decline in deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in Japan between 2020 and 2040. Published in The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, their study employs a Bayesian age-period-cohort model that offers more precise predictions of CVD trends, taking into account factors such as population aging, shifts in diabetes prevalence, cholesterol levels, and body mass index. This research underscores the need to consider these factors alongside regional variations across Japan’s 47 prefectures. The findings suggest that, despite demographic changes, overall cardiovascular mortality rates are poised to decrease. This anticipated reduction in CVD deaths may lead to increased healthcare spending related to aging-associated conditions like dementia and frailty, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive healthcare planning and resource allocation.