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ǥ : ȣ - 530067   333 
Individualized Prediction Model for Coronary Artery Disease Integrating Traditional Risk Factors and Novel Biomarkers in Korean Population
연세대학교 의과대학 내과학 교실 심장내과
조성수, 이상학, 손낙훈, 신동직, 장양수, 정남식, 심원흠, 조승연
Background: Investigators have evaluated biomarkers beyond traditional risk factors to predict coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the incremental usefulness of adding multiple biomarkers remains to be clarified. Furthermore, few data has been reported in Asian population. Methods: We collected clinical and biomarker data from 1006 subjects (503 CAD patients and 503 age and sex-matched control subjects). The case group included relatively young patients (male <55yrs, female<60 yrs) with angiographically documented multi-vessel CAD. We recorded clinical risk factors and assessed routine chemistry, and insulin levels. We also checked other biomarkers (hs-CRP, IL-6, adiponectin, Lp-PLA2, RAGE and RANTES) that have been previously demonstrated to be associated with CAD by our group. We developed a prediction model for CAD using multiple logistic regression analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, following variables were identified as independent determinants of CAD (each variable is followed by the adjusted odds ratio): age (1.02), body mass index (0.97), diabetes mellitus (3.46), hypertension (32.75), glucose (1.04), insulin (1.13), creatinine (31.08), total cholesterol (0.996), triglyceride (0.997), HDL-cholesterol (0.94), hs-CRP (1.18), IL-6 (1.01), adiponectin (1.09), and RAGE (1.001). By using analyzed data, we developed the final prediction model of CAD: p=1/1 + exp (7.43 – 0.022 x age + 0.030 x body mass index -1.24 x diabetes mellitus -3.49 x hypertension – 0.042 x glucose – 0.12 x insulin – 3.44 x creatinine + 0.0037 x total cholesterol + 0.0031 x triglyceride + 0.061 x HDL-cholesterol – 0.17 x hs-CRP – 0.0085 x IL-6 – 0.087 x adiponectin – 0.0010 x RAGE). C statistics for models of CAD was 0.947 with the final prediction model, whereas it was 0.931 without novel biomarkers (hs-CRP, IL-6, adiponectin, and RAGE). Conclusions: Our results indicate that integration of novel biomarkers may modestly improve the risk stratification for CAD beyond the model based only on traditional risk factors.

 



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