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A Novel Risk Stratification Model for Acute Non ST-elevation Myocardial Estimating the Risk of 6-Month Outcomes in the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry: Limitation of TIMI Risk Scoring System
전남대학교병원 심장센터, 전남대학교 심혈관계 특성화 사업단
김주한, 정명호, 이신은, 고점석, 이민구, 강원유, 김수현, 박근호, 심두선, 윤남식, 윤현주, 김계훈, 박형욱, 안영근, 조정관, 박종춘, 강정채, 박옥규
Backgrounds: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score (TRS) has proven value in predicting prognosis in unstable angina/non ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) as well as in ST-elevation myocardial infarction. But TRS system has little implication as to the extent of myocardial damage in high-risk patients with NSTEMI. Thus we sought to evaluate validity of TRS system in NSTEMI and to propose an alternative risk stratification model. Methods: A total of 1,621 patients (63.6±12.2 years of age; 1,043 males) with NSTEMI were enrolled in the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR). The baseline clinical characteristics and TRS were recorded including biomarkers such as Tn-I, NT-proBNP, and hs-CRP. We analyzed the risk for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during a period of 6-month follow-up. Results: TRS system had good correlation with MACE for patients in the low and intermediate group. MACE rate was 3.8% for TRS 1, 9.4% for TRS 2, 10.7% for TRS 3, and 12.3% for TRS 4 (HR=1.29, p=0.026) but had poor correlation when the high-risk group was included (p=0.128). Among the biomarkers, elevated NT-proBNP levels above 75 percentile had the best predictive value for MACE (HR=2.61, p=0.001) independently of other risk factors. Among the clinical risk factors, Killip class above III showed good correlation with MACE (HR=0.302, p<0.001). So we devised an alternative clinical scoring system by including these two variables reflecting left ventricular dysfunction: age > 65 years old, history of ischemic heart disease, Killip class above III and elevated pro-BNP levels above 75 percentile. This modified scoring system, when tested for validity, showed a good predictive value for MACE (HR=1.64, p<0.001). Conclusions: Compared with the traditional TRS, the novel alternative scoring system based on age, history of ischemic heart disease, Killip class, and NT-proBNP showed a better predictive value for 6-month MACE in high-risk patients with NSTEMI.


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